George Will long has been a rock of intelligence and erudite conservative Op-Ed comments in numerous US newspapers. His writing style is brilliant, reasoned, and expressed in very sophisticated American English. He recounts that doubts about the rational outlook of Mr. Trump began when photos of the crowd at his Inaugural in Washington following his election in 2016 showed around a third to a half of the size of the crowd four years prior at President Obama’s Inauguration. For reasons still not understood, President Trump responded to criticism by doubling down and stating repeatedly that the crowd as his swearing in was “larger, by a lot." He never retracted that in spite of photographs vividly comparing the two crowds. I'm not sure that any of us gave much thought to that other than why contest the obvious. Then came the President’s characterization of white ruffian skin-heads carrying Swastikas at Charlottesville as “very nice people." Looking back, these provided data points of Mr. Trump never retracting anything, never saying he is wrong ... fake media. He did, at one point, in a terse one-liner, retract his continuously false statements that President Obama was not born in America, a tag line of Mr. Trump’s long standing “Birther” theory.
Winds of change, national and international forces that preceded the election of Mr. Trump over Ms. Clinton, were deep and they continue. The divide between rural portions of this country and our urban areas is significant. People have different lifestyles. The sorts of work people do: agriculture, technology, IT, retailing, and manufacturing are quite different. Religious faith seems more ingrained as a rural and small town tenet; evangelical congregations are especially strong in these areas. Large Mega-Churches and evangelican television programs are popular with Trump supporters. The divide also is significant between age groups and different races. The Red-Blue separation is no longer one primarily of traditional and somewhat timeless political philosophy such as regulation, personal responsibility, foreign policy and trade, but one now influenced by one’s views on border security, abortion, prayer in schools and public places, and cultural issues. Economic changes depopulate wide swaths of the country-side as people move to cities for newer jobs and increase the divide. Suburbs, areas of nice lawns and homes once reasonably secure for Republican votes, now are trending Democratic, with exceptional strength among women.
Mr. Trump allows himself to be “transactional” on many issues, just to get something done. But his internal compass is strong along certain bearings including border security, concern about immigration, more protection for mineral extraction and mature industries, as well as “America First.” I certainly agree that the country must ensure we have not outsourced literally everything but military goods and social media leadership to China. But business priorities cannot outweigh the environment. Mr. Trump speaks in terms, sometimes coded in ways his supporters understand, terms that resonate culturally, and confirm he “has their back.” Yet in reality, economic gains have not been spread equally, with literally untold wealth creation for few while many live in crowded and unsafe neighborhoods from meager paychecks with no financial backstop. The COVID-19 pandemic has eliminated many of these jobs as well, and with the current deaths of black men in police hands, racial tensions are high.
Younger people are the vanguard of change, while older citizens are more change resistant in all areas. Mr. Trump remains strong in the areas where he appeals to the more traditional religious and cultural beliefs, and the electoral system of the USA is such that he can be reelected if he wins a majority in the states where these traditions predominate. In the last election, he won a strong majority of electoral votes while losing the popular vote by three million by successfully appealing to these voters. "Make America Great Again" is a simplistic and appealing tag-line.
Mr. Will is extremely critical of Mr. Trump’s personal style as well as his principles. In fact, many of the President's own supporters are uneasy with this. Trump’s method is to “attack, never retreat, and never say I am wrong.” Mr. Trump often makes statements that are clearly factually wrong. More than ten thousand of these public statements have been documented as false since his election. This does not seem to bother his most fervent base. He has boasted that he could shoot someone on a main street and no one would care. To approximately 35% of the voters, that appears to be the case in fact. Mr. Will is very harsh in his criticism of the President, calling him a “Vulgarian” and “small man” as well as “a malignant buffoon.“ Will writes that the nation is spiraling downward into acrimony and sporadic anarchy, which is very evident now. He writes that the Republican Party has fallen into silent, sycophantic acceptance if not approval of Trump’s style as long as they themselves get re-elected and get their Supreme Court appointments. To run in a Republican primary election without the endorsement of the President is a curse of defeat, no matter that the national debt has ballooned, US leadership in NATO has been hollowed out, our allies wonder about US commitment, key trade pacts have been cancelled, immigrants are less welcomed, and US participation in the World Health Organization is cancelled. All of this is taking place in the midst of the worst viral pandemic in one hundred years, which has triggered the most severe economic contraction since the 1920-30’s. Racial unrest, triggered by years of frustration, is spilling over in our cities as a wave of police excesses has occurred, but with ugly violence and destruction of the very stores and services that cater to the same frustrated population. The President responds with a theme of Law and Order.
Between 30-40% of the US, more or less, are unvaryingly loyal to President. Apparently, absolutely nothing will break their commitment to their man. Approximately 40-50% have the opposite viewpoint. There are some 15-20%, give or take, who somehow have remained either neutral, wait and see, or who just don’t care. The key to Mr. Trump’s re-election or defeat will be these, along with turnout. Trump’s base - mostly older, white men along with the conservative religious voters - is sure to vote. Will the minority community, so supportive to Obama, but less participatory for Ms. Clinton, turn out against Trump? Young voters, often strong Democratic Party supporters, are notoriously fickle in voting percentages. The polls historically have undercounted Trump supporters for some reason: Are they not asked? Do respondents answer truthfully? In some areas, to be a Trumper is a mark of scorn. So the accuracy of polling is questionable, as is the fact that things are changing so fast with the economic and medical hurricane in which we live, along with social unrest.
The election ahead is likely to be the rawest and most unsettling in our lifetime. Trump’s strategy is to counter punch, threaten and demean, no matter how bizarre the information might be. This strategy has been successful for him. The opposing candidate is put into a box and must defend against an array of incredible attacks. Mr. Biden’s heroic older son Beau, who served with such distinction in the US military, and who died from a fatal brain cancer, was a hero. Biden’s younger son, Hunter (by one year) has made decisions that will ensure an endless series of accusations on his father. One wonders why a young man with a solid background could be selfish and stupid at the same time. This matter alone, Hunter Biden’s extremely questionable choices, is worthy of valid criticism. In addition to beating this to death, Mr. Trump apparently will wander off into Trump fantasy land and has accused Morning Joe host Joe Scarborough of murdering a young aide, a woman who had documented heart problems. She apparently had a heart attack while working in his office two decades ago, at a time while Scarborough was miles away on a business trip. Zero facts support such conspiracy theories and terrible malevolent lies, however this is Trump conspiracy world at its best, or worst. Just get ready for a trip through Uglyville.
In what was a truly concerning move, and this should be troubling to all Americans, a phalanx of military/policing /security forces that reminded some of a Praetornian Guard with shields appeared to secure the President’s recent Bible-thrusting photo opportunity while standing outside a famous church near the White House. This ominious force were dressed in “non-descriptive” dark clothing with no insignia or otherwise identification as to their unit, or even that they are American! Does the American public, demonstrating peacefully in full accord with their First Amendment rights peacefully, now get swept aside by horsemen and baton-yielding strongmen who are dressed in black? Is this an American version of the Black Shirts and Brown Shirts from you-know-where back in the 1930s?
For the most part, Republican members of Congress have remained silent. Senator Murkowski of Alaska alone appeared to have enough independence to question the President, but recently Senator Mitt Romney of Utah has added his voice. In addition several senior military officers who have served in key governmental civilian positions of authority now have come forward criticizing the President on his handling of current chaotic events and specifically the use of US military and security for questionable civilian purposes such as mentioned above. These men include James Mattis, retired Marine Corps General who served as Secretary of Defense under Mr. Trump, John Kelly, retired Marine Corps General who served as Chief of Staff and Secretary of Homeland Security for Trump, Mike Mullen, retired Navy Admiral and former Chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and John Allen, retired Marine Corps General and Commander of NATO International Security (and US) Forces in Afghanistan. In addition, Colin Powell, retired General in the US Army and former Secretary of State, blasted the President in a major interview on CNN. Finally (and the list of key military leaders is getting long), William McRaven, US Navy Admiral, Commander of American Special Forces and recently Chancellor of the University of Texas System also is on public record in opposition to President Trump.
Virtually no one alive today has seen anything like this. Certainly the Covid-19 Pandemic is random, if a viral infection that has killed 110,000 Americans to this point can be such. Yet early reactions to the virus with clearly assinane positions that "it will go away" and failure to take actions to minumize infection rates have accelerated the spread. The resulting national and international recession is deep and will leave long-lasting effects in many ways. Public anger of police excesses and long standing racial frustrations are tearing at the very fabric of the country. All in all, it feels we are living in a fantasy land with a well-dressed puppet careening from one superlative declaration (the greatest ... this or that) to incredibly demeaning comdemnations of people and things; woven into a history of serial exxagerations and lies. There is only one way out; to return to an honest leadership style. Mr. Trump is a strongman demagogue cast in timeless form. Chaos reigns. Enough!
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Enjoy life; it's the only one we will get.
J.K. (Jim) George
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