You can stop now if you want to. No problem. However we are witnessing one of the most, if not the most, unusual candidacies of my lifetime. I watched most of the Trump acceptance speech at the RNC Convention, and found it fascinating. It was a little long, and one could see it in the crowd of true believers from time to time, but after a historic run through sixteen competitors and a convention with several surprising developments, he capped the final evening with a well-constructed and equally well-delivered fiery speech.
This guy is smart. He's clever. And he is used to winning. He's perfected the medium of television as well as social media, and is a compelling speaker with mogul-like looks and a dashing persona. He's also used to being in control and not taking any guff from others. "Hit me and I'll hit back twice as hard" was his mantra. "I'll apologize if I'm wrong," yet I'm not sure I heard a single apology. Ever. The problems and issues either were incorrect or false. Always.
Mr. Trump demonstrated over and over his ability to characterize his opponents, each and every one, with simple one-or-two word, clever, cutting, and cruel descriptions. People were low energy, little, unattractive, lying, dumb, etc. He excelled at reducing people as well as situations to a condensed simplification. To this date, these have been effective and have appeared to result in broader support.
His acceptance speech delivery bordered on an angry and harsh riff. However many of his supporters indeed are angry. He listed problem after problem along with clear blames: they were caused (personally, it seemed) by President Obama and/or Hillary Clinton. Solutions were not specific, but it was clear that he (Donald Trump) would fix them, and fast. There have not been many details on how these things get fixed, but he will personally fix them. Fast. "On ISIS, We're going to win. We're going to win fast." On jobs going to Mexico, China, and other places: "Those companies are going to bring those jobs back and fast."
On immigration: "We are going to build a wall, seal the border, and stop the flow of illegals." Of course the flow of illegals from Mexico has nearly stopped. In fact, the flow of undocumented Mexican citizens over the border now is a net reduction in the US and a net gain in Mexico.The primary source of border crossings is from Central America: El Salvador and Honduras, due to vicious gangs that threaten their helpless citizens. Regarding Syria, "We are going to stop the huge number of people from Syria who are overflowing into our country and who are not vetted and threaten our safety." So far in 2016, the US has accepted 1,285 Syrian refugees, mainly women and children, and all vetted. This modest total is only 13 percent of the target number of ten thousand since Republican governors oppose the resettlement, and vetting is taking longer than usual in order to be thorough. On Muslim immigration, his line has changed from "banning all Muslims" to "I am going to block immigration from any country that doesn't (I can't recall the exact wording here) share our values." That's a hard one to tie down, and writing a policy on that would be tricky. On trade, "I will immediately cancel NAFTA and stop the TPP. Then renegotiate both such that they are great deals and fair."
We are going to redefine NATO. "If the other countries want us to defend them, they will have to pay for it." This last line was modified in his speech to the treaty terms of spending at least two percent of GDP on defense. It is hard to disagree with this, since only four of the NATO block is meeting this commitment. Perhaps it's an opening shot on a renegotiation, but it's not the usual way these things are done. But that's part of Mr. Trump's allure, or threat, depending on your point of view. Our foreign policy since WW-II has been to guarantee a secure Western Europe for many reasons.
On mining, which is of peculiar interest to me since I grew up in coal country in Johnson County, KY and southern WV, his "I will put the miners back to work. Now." pledge has been a theme. This has been packaged inside a "War on Coal" at the hands of Obama and Hillary Clinton. Let me say up front that nowhere are the people (nearly all miners are men) more devoted or harder working than coal miners. In my wife's family, four men earned their living in the mines, or in the mining industry infrastructure (rails, trestles, conveyor belts, processing plants, etc). None could be harder working or more committed. But the problem in coal mining, especially in the deep veins in Appalachia, are many fold. For one, the mines are old and deep and in many cases the easy-to-reach seams are worked out. The coal burns with sulfur emissions and a power plant using it must scrub the exhaust stacks to prevent horrible air pollution ... more expense. The coal from Wyoming is nearly on the surface and can be taken out with huge shovels and put directly into rail cars in many cases. But the two primary impediments to coal mining economics are: (1) The fracking technology has made natural gas much, much more available and at a third to a half the cost of burning coal, and; (2) One of the primary markets for coal outside the power generation industry is "coking coal" for the steel industry, and the main customer, China, has overbuilt their steel-making capacity and has cut back on taking deliveries of Appalachian coking coal. This is not a quick-fix. President Trump would not be able to fix this coal mining problem, "fast," as he says. But it sounds good on the campaign trail. He probably will crush Hillary Clinton in eastern KY and in WV with this good line. But his simplistic description of the problem, along with someone to villainize, is incomplete and wrong, and his solution just ain't gonna happen.
It's true that a large portion of the American people are frustrated. There is a rapid change in demographics (more Hispanic/Latino population), a higher visibility Muslim population, plus the old black-white friction, with a growing secular population, especially younger people who are not as closely tied to church. According to Pew Research, millennials, people born between 1977 and 2000, are the least religious generation in American history, with 35 percent saying they are not religiously affiliated. That does not mean they don't have faith-based beliefs, but they are not active in a religious organization and are more secular. At this time, the single largest voting block in the country is the group that checks "none" for a religion. A final frustration for many, including a significant percentage of evangelicals, is the sweep of high-visibility legal rulings on the LGBT community. Taken all together, many, especially with those who are unemployed, underemployed, frustrated with the sweep of secularism, and nervous with other cultures now so visible, lump all these into "we are losing our country, and we want to take it back."
People who study these things tell us that these resentment feelings are complex, and that solutions to these are very hard to implement. The demographic changes in the US are going to happen no matter what. We are a diverse nation, becoming more so, and the worst thing we could possibly do is to divide along racial or ethnic differences and fight it out along fracture lines. The US has been, overall, immigrant friendly for generations and that's the reason we can assimilate others. It's important as well for new immigrants to blend in and adopt the majority culture of the host country. In general, that has been the case here. Fundamentally, two results are likely when tensions increase like they have at this time: (1) A democratic (small d) reform leader comes along, with a positive theme like Reagan's "Morning in America," or FDR, and impacts the overall economy with education and works projects, or (2) A "strongman" appears with "we have enemies and the we need to be vigilant and protect ourselves" approach. I'm afraid that Mr. Trump, with his simplistic "Things are bad. This is a dangerous and failing place. Let's make American great again. I will fix it," is the latter. We can't go back to a place that doesn't exist any longer.
My thoughts on Hillary Clinton will be posted after the Democratic National Convention is completed.
